Technical Deflation
The cost of building and maintaining software is deflating rapidly, and this deflation extends beyond code generation to verification, testing, and formal methods. Formal verification is converging as a practical discipline — Leanstral and entity/peter-lavigne's work suggest "the big unlock." John: "We don't hand-verify what a compiler produces."
+16.4pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+32.0% · 1 instrument
S&P 500 same period+15.6%
Call directionWatch
No directional call — this basket is the thesis’s instrument panel.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGViShares Software ETF | 106.18 | -3.5% | +32.0% | +16.4pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 761.78 | -0.7% | +15.6% | — | |
| Basket: Instrument panel: software pricing power as deflation proxy | |||||
Recent evidence 291 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v39, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 291 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +34.4% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +54.7% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.