Technical Deflation
The cost of building and maintaining software is deflating rapidly, and this deflation extends beyond code generation to verification, testing, and formal methods. Formal verification is converging as a practical discipline — Leanstral and entity/peter-lavigne's work suggest "the big unlock." John: "We don't hand-verify what a compiler produces."
+13.8pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+29.7% · 1 instrument
S&P 500 same period+15.8%
Call directionWatch
No directional call — this basket is the thesis’s instrument panel.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGViShares Software ETF | 104.34 | -4.8% | +29.7% | +13.8pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 763.25 | -1.1% | +15.8% | — | — |
| Basket: Instrument panel: software pricing power as deflation proxy | |||||
Recent evidence 408 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v41, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 408 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +41.9% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +50.2% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.