The SaaS Apocalypse
AI tooling is dismantling the value proposition of incumbent SaaS products. The pattern is not head-on competition but death by a thousand cuts — no single vibe-coded tool competes with Photoshop, but when millions of users need only 1% of its functionality, the market fragments irreparably.
+34.4pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+50.2% · 7 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.8%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIGFigma | 21.49 | -6.5% | +0.3% | -15.5pp | — |
| ADBEAdobe | 245.20 | -2.6% | +0.3% | -15.5pp | — |
| IGViShares Software ETF | 104.34 | -4.8% | +29.7% | +13.8pp | — |
| CRMSalesforce | 240.70 | -2.4% | +30.1% | +14.3pp | — |
| NOWServiceNow | 141.97 | -4.4% | +38.6% | +22.8pp | — |
| WDAYWorkday | 190.81 | -3.0% | +47.1% | +31.3pp | — |
| TEAMAtlassian | 207.82 | -4.3% | +205.2% | +189.4pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 763.25 | -1.1% | +15.8% | — | — |
| Basket: Seat-priced SaaS: sector ETF plus the canaries | |||||
Recent evidence 242 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v44, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 242 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +41.9% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +50.2% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.