Microsoft Has Lost the Plot
Microsoft's strategic position is deteriorating despite surface-level AI investment. They lack internal frontier models and depend on entity/openai, which is itself strategically unfocused — the Forbes "OpenAI Graveyard" documents deals and products that never materialised, while Anthropic's focus on a smaller number of things continues to pay off. Copilot has "Product Market Failure" (John's phrase). The entity/microsoft integration of Anthropic into Copilot Cowork confirms
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFTMicrosoft | 501.02 | -1.2% | +34.4% | +18.8pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 761.78 | -0.7% | +15.6% | — | |
| Basket: Single-name thesis | |||||
Recent evidence 114 signals filed
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- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v29, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 114 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
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2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +34.4% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +54.7% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.