Real-time intelligence on the AI transformation

Being early is no longer the same as being wrong.

The gap between something emerging and something mattering used to be measured in years. Now it's measured in weeks. Most analysis still operates on the old timescale.

NOOPS tracks the signals that move markets, identifies the theses that explain them, and delivers analysis at the speed the transformation is actually happening.

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Mark Pesce

Technologist · Author · Futurist

Inventor of VRML. Columnist for The Register. One of Australia's most recognised voices on emerging technology. Three decades at the intersection of technology, culture, and the market forces that connect them.

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John Allsopp

Developer · Publisher · Standards Author

Three decades in web technology. Founder of Web Directions. Publisher of practitioner analysis on the AI transformation at webdirections.org. He builds with these tools daily — that's the difference.

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Selected calls — what we spotted, and when

Jan 2025
DeepSeek efficiency thesis
Identified that DeepSeek V3's training cost meant the compute moat was an illusion. Weeks before the NVIDIA sell-off.
✓ Confirmed
May 2025
MCP as the agent standard
Identified Anthropic's Model Context Protocol as the integration layer that would become the default. Six months before universal adoption.
✓ Confirmed
Mid 2025
SaaS pricing collapse
Tracked the flip from premium pricing to discount-for-data across the coding agent market in real time.
✓ Confirmed
Late 2025
Agent runtimes as the real battleground
While the market debated model benchmarks, we identified that the infrastructure letting agents act — OpenClaw, flo.monster, MCP tooling — was where value would accumulate.
● Developing
Ongoing
Microsoft's structural vulnerability
Azure diversion, token constraints, no internal frontier model, OpenAI decoupling. The hedge: short companies the longer they rely on Microsoft.
● Active thesis
Mar 2026
Anthropic passing OpenAI in enterprise
$19B ARR, 20x year-on-year. Enterprise token share: Anthropic 40%, OpenAI 27%. We flagged this trajectory months before the market priced it in.
✓ Confirmed

Why this

In the 1990s, marketing agencies hired "coolhunters" — people embedded in subcultures who could spot emerging trends before they hit the mainstream. The AI transformation needs the same thing, but the stakes are higher and the timescale is compressed.

This isn't about cool. It's about seeing the signal in the noise while the signal is still actionable. A new repo appears. Token flows shift on OpenRouter. A company quietly hires a hundred ML engineers. Each of these is a data point. Most people see them in isolation, or see them too late. We connect them to theses and track whether those theses hold.

Strategy commentators operate on months to years. Deep research houses on weeks to months. We operate on hours to weeks — not because we're journalists chasing news, but because we're practitioners who build with these tools every day.

Why now

The old rule in markets was that being early is the same as being wrong. That rule assumed a slow diffusion curve — years between emergence and consequence, decades between invention and impact. The diffusion curve has changed.

DeepSeek went from paper to market shock in weeks. MCP went from spec to universal standard in months. OpenClaw went from a repo to a platform in a quarter. The window between spotting a signal and the market pricing it in has narrowed to the point where conventional-speed analysis arrives after it's already too late.

If your analysis shows up after the window closes, it's not analysis. It's a history lesson.

Why us

We've spent over fourteen months doing this for free. Thousands of links shared, interpreted, connected — daily. Fortnightly deep-dive walks recorded and processed. A combined six decades of building with technology, not just writing about it.

That practitioner angle is the thing that can't be replicated. We see the cracks in a platform's model because we hit them in production. We see what an emerging tool actually does because we're using it, not reading the press release.

One more thing: NOOPS is produced using the AI-augmented workflow we analyse. Our conversations become structured analysis at a speed no traditional operation can match. The production pipeline is itself a proof of thesis. No other research service can make that claim without proving our point.

Analysis at four speeds

The AI transformation doesn't move at one tempo. Neither do we. Each layer of NOOPS matches a different analytical timescale — from what's emerging right now to what it means for the next year.

Daily — signals

What's emerging

Short, opinionated, interpretive. The repos gaining traction. The token flows shifting. The hires that tell you where a company is really headed. Not news — signal. The things that matter before anyone knows they matter.

Weekly — theses

What it means

One clear thesis, well argued, undeniable. Each one a stepping stone — read it and you can't unread it. "The Bitter Lesson Is the New Moore's Law." "Processes Are Harnesses for Humans." The ideas that reframe what you thought you understood.

Monthly — deep dives

The full picture

When a signal resolves into a trend, we write the complete analysis. Full evidence, full working, what we got right, what we missed. The kind of research note that institutional analysts charge five figures for, grounded in practitioner experience they can't replicate.

Quarterly — the salon

The room

Twelve people. One dinner. A curated gathering of practitioners, founders, and investors whose own signal-processing sharpens ours — and vice versa. The conversation you wish you were having. Available to premium subscribers.

The dashboard

Not just words. A live instrument panel showing what we're tracking and why. The signals feeding our theses, updated in real time. See what we see.

NOOPS SIGNAL DASHBOARD — 9 Mar 2026
Token market share (OpenRouter, 7d rolling)
Anthropic Claude    41.2% ▲ 1.8
OpenAI GPT         26.4% ▼ 0.9
Google Gemini      20.1% ▲ 0.3
Open-weight (Llama/Qwen) 12.3% ▲ 0.7
Emerging signals
OpenClaw GitHub stars    8,420 ▲ 340 (7d)   ● TRACKING
flo.monster weekly active   2,180 ▲ 12%   ● TRACKING
MCP integrations (registry) 14,600+
Virtual portfolio — $10,000 start
Current value: $10,000
Positions: Pending first thesis publication
Hypothetical. Not financial advice. Full methodology in subscriber docs.

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