Theses 07 / 20 TRACKING published 05 Apr 2026 · updated 02 Aug 2026 · v42

Infrastructure Winners

"Long infra. Short spoons." — the four-word NOOPS investment thesis. In a paradigm shift, infrastructure providers win. entity/nvidia is the kingmaker via strategic GPU allocation. entity/tsmc is sold out until 2028. entity/cloudflare got hammered in the cybersecurity sell-off but is actually an infrastructure winner — a buying opportunity.

+17.9pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+33.6% · 16 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.6%
Call directionBullish ↑

A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.

InstrumentPriceTodaySince publishedvs SPY90d
DELLDell Technologies 425.00 -6.8% +145.4% +129.8pp
MRVLMarvell 210.39 -0.6% +92.1% +76.5pp
SMCISuper Micro Computer 36.71 -1.5% +66.5% +50.9pp
ANETArista Networks 189.26 -3.3% +49.9% +34.3pp
NETCloudflare 285.51 -6.4% +34.8% +19.2pp
LRCXLam Research 290.20 -3.7% +31.5% +15.9pp
ASMLASML 1665.14 -1.8% +27.7% +12.1pp
AMATApplied Materials 441.85 -3.6% +25.3% +9.7pp
NVDANVIDIA 217.44 -1.5% +22.4% +6.8pp
TSMTSMC 414.00 -0.3% +21.1% +5.5pp
AVGOBroadcom 369.68 -0.2% +17.6% +2.0pp
NXT.AXNEXTDC 13.91 +6.6% +10.4% -5.2pp
CEGConstellation Energy 280.31 +2.0% +1.9% -13.7pp
GEVGE Vernova 898.53 0.0% +0.1% -15.5pp
VRTVertiv 255.97 -1.1% -1.1% -16.7pp
VSTVistra 138.08 +0.5% -8.9% -24.5pp
SPYS&P 500 — benchmark 761.78 -0.7% +15.6%
Basket: Fabs, EUV, accelerators, networking, servers, cooling, DCs, and the power to run them

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When we're wrong

2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +34.4% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +54.7% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.