The Home Watershed
AI capability is crossing the threshold where it runs meaningfully on consumer and home hardware — the concept/watershed where the transformation reaches everyone, not just developers and enterprises. Mark's watershed formulation captures the moment where capability meets accessibility.
+50.6pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+66.5% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.8%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron | 878.84 | -5.6% | +132.6% | +116.8pp | — |
| INTCIntel | 89.85 | -5.8% | +76.9% | +61.1pp | — |
| ARMARM Holdings | 227.80 | -6.9% | +53.1% | +37.3pp | — |
| QCOMQualcomm | 172.11 | -3.5% | +36.9% | +21.1pp | — |
| AAPLApple | 343.46 | +0.4% | +32.7% | +16.9pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 763.25 | -1.1% | +15.8% | — | — |
| Basket: Consumer silicon capable of frontier-adjacent inference | |||||
Recent evidence 265 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v40, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 265 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +41.9% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +50.2% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.