The Home Watershed
AI capability is crossing the threshold where it runs meaningfully on consumer and home hardware — the concept/watershed where the transformation reaches everyone, not just developers and enterprises. Mark's watershed formulation captures the moment where capability meets accessibility.
+52.0pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+67.7% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.6%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron | 933.44 | -2.6% | +147.1% | +131.5pp | |
| INTCIntel | 88.97 | -0.6% | +75.2% | +59.6pp | |
| ARMARM Holdings | 234.82 | -2.9% | +57.8% | +42.2pp | |
| QCOMQualcomm | 166.61 | -2.3% | +32.5% | +16.9pp | |
| AAPLApple | 325.13 | +2.6% | +25.6% | +10.0pp | |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 761.78 | -0.7% | +15.6% | — | |
| Basket: Consumer silicon capable of frontier-adjacent inference | |||||
Recent evidence 222 signals filed
31 AUG 2026
John and Mark argue over whether Apple should be selling inference racks
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v37, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 222 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +34.4% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +54.7% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.