Theses 01 / 20 TRACKING published 05 Apr 2026 · updated 06 Sept 2026 · v37

Agents as Primary Users

AI agents are becoming the primary users of digital infrastructure — not humans. Mark's formulation: "AI AGENTS ARE A DEATH SENTENCE FOR THE INTERNET" — meaning specifically the ad-driven, attention-mediated, human-facing internet. Agents don't use travel booking portals, they call APIs directly. The middlemen die. Booking.com and Expedia are explicit casualties. OpenAI's agentic shopping with Etsy/Shopify/Walmart/Amazon is building agent-commerce infrastructure. Visa is crea

+3.3pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+19.2% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.8%
Call directionBullish ↑

A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.

InstrumentPriceTodaySince publishedvs SPY90d
PLTRPalantir 186.03 -7.2% +25.8% +9.9pp —
METAMeta 709.33 -3.7% +23.8% +8.0pp —
AMZNAmazon 250.00 -1.9% +17.5% +1.7pp —
PATHUiPath 12.85 -6.3% +15.2% -0.6pp —
GOOGLAlphabet 340.59 -2.5% +13.5% -2.3pp —
SPYS&P 500 — benchmark 763.25 -1.1% +15.8% — —
Basket: Agent platforms, agent commerce, and automation incumbents

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When we're wrong

2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +41.9% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +50.2% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.