Theses 01 / 20 TRACKING published 05 Apr 2026 · updated 07 May 2026 · v36

Agents as Primary Users

AI agents are becoming the primary users of digital infrastructure — not humans. Mark's formulation: "AI AGENTS ARE A DEATH SENTENCE FOR THE INTERNET" — meaning specifically the ad-driven, attention-mediated, human-facing internet. Agents don't use travel booking portals, they call APIs directly. The middlemen die. Booking.com and Expedia are explicit casualties. OpenAI's agentic shopping with Etsy/Shopify/Walmart/Amazon is building agent-commerce infrastructure. Visa is crea

+7.7pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+23.4% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.6%
Call directionBullish ↑

A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.

InstrumentPriceTodaySince publishedvs SPY90d
PATHUiPath 18.14 -2.8% +62.7% +47.1pp
PLTRPalantir 179.92 -3.5% +21.6% +6.0pp
AMZNAmazon 254.92 -1.9% +19.8% +4.2pp
GOOGLAlphabet 335.02 -1.3% +11.7% -3.9pp
METAMeta 578.54 +1.1% +1.0% -14.6pp
SPYS&P 500 — benchmark 761.78 -0.7% +15.6%
Basket: Agent platforms, agent commerce, and automation incumbents

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When we're wrong

2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +34.4% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +54.7% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.